Strip Resorts expect soft summer visits, but think it will be a rebound and growth through the fourth quarter until a good start in 2026.
The predictions are described in a report to investors by the gaming industry’s analyst Barry Jonas, CEO of Atlanta-based truist securities. Jonas issued the report on Friday after meeting with managers of the large casino companies in Las Vegas.
Jonas said he believes that summer is more the result of traditional returns during the hot months than the consumer’s feeling.
“Operators see a softer summer run by weak conference operations and summer season market without real exclamations around the consumer’s weakness,” Jonas said in the report. “Comments suggested interest rates were in line with our latest room survey and noted a soft Q2 followed by a relatively better yet soft year to year July/Q3. Q3 also sees a negative impact from a Jewish holiday shift from Q4.”
Jonas said that the operators are clear that they do not see any basic consumer issues, as gaming revenue remains solid, hotel bookings and prices improved during the third quarter and looks positive to the fourth quarter and 2026 has a better installation with a strong event and congress calendar. In addition, the disturbance from the Las Vegas Convention Center renovation will be over when the project is completed at the end of the year and in time for the Conex-Conagg conference and its 100,000 participants in March. LVCVA has noted a record number of booked events and expected participants for 2026.
Jonas said that the local population operators Boyd Gaming Corp., Red Rock Resorts and Golden Entertainment noted a stable performance on the market, which is largely driven by strong employment and wage growth, as well as high housing prices and less exposure to stock markets.
“We believe that the public operators remain disciplined and do not intend to chase the low closed out of the business, given that these customers will often rotate from promo to promo,” he wrote.
Tariff concerns have slowed down company manufacturing companies.
“Manufacturers noted a certain product sales doubt from the operators in April around Liberation Day given the uncertainty about customs and total macro,” Jonas said. Since then, larger players, including Light and Wonder, have seen a return to more normal product sales trends, although we have heard more doubts from some smaller players. Manufacturers were more adapted in terms of customs meeting strategies, and illustrate their ability to adapt delivery chains on international deliveries. Several companies have moved production outside other countries such as Mexico and then deliver international units directly. “
Macao rebounding
Jonas Report shared some notes on individual companies:
-For Caesars are strip trends in the second and third quarters a little softer with less group capacity on the market with regard to LVCVA and Venetian renovations. The company is likely to be most affected by the opening of Hard Rock Las Vegas on the former Mirage website, but the Seminole tribe’s property will come online at the end of 2027, which gives Caesar’s lots of courses prepare before then.
-For MGM does not see any systematic error with the congressional industry because June and July have historically been affected or missed, but 2026 future bookings go up with two -digit percentages. Despite the decline in Canadian tourism, MGM noted that international market -wise visits are still upwards of years over years, and the domestic air capacity for the market would also be upwards of years over years if not for return from Spirit Airlines.
-For Boyd estimates the management that outside Orleans exceeded local properties moderately market, which was slightly down. The company is expected to benefit from its cadence transition opening in 2026 and has other regional projects in progress across the United States.
-For Red Rock noted the leadership consistent local population market trends so far but warned that June may be a more difficult month. The management analyzes three Las Vegas growth opportunities for their next major project, including the expansion of Durango, Inspirarada, located in the area with the highest net value in Nevada but with less developed surroundings and cactus, where the company owns 128 acres on a strong local population market and optimally just outside the motorway. The project will be on a larger scale than inspired but also more competitive given its proximity to the successful and competitive South Point Property and Penn Entertainment Inc.’s M Resort.
-For Golden, the lead sees a little volatility on Strat with weekends a little stronger and mid -week softer. But the company expects a pickup in September on the strip when improving the convention calendar, but noted that its low visibility as 30 percent of its bookings are within seven days. Atomic Golf generated $ 20 million in revenue during the first nine months last year. The company gets some of the revenue and expects to generate “a couple of million dollars” profit this year together with increased traffic on Strat.
Contact Richard N. Velotta at rvelotta@ theplayerlounge.com or 702-477-3893. Follow @rickvelotta at X.
