Madrid Open Draw 2026 – Perfect Tennis

The Mutua Madrid Open 2026 draw is out and it has been significantly reshaped by a wave of high profile withdrawals.

Carlos Alcaraz (home favorite and two-time champion), Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda and Frances Tiafoe have pulled out, opening up the bracket and giving lucky losers and substitutes a shot at Caja Mágica’s high-altitude clay.

With Jannik Sinner as the clear top seed and Alexander Zverev second favorite in a draw that is missing some of its biggest stars, the path to the title looks more accessible to some, but who can take out Sinner after his Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo Masters 1000 wins?

Tournament information

Madrid Open 2026 Seeds

Seeds

1. Jannik Sinner
2. Alexander Zverev
3. Félix Auger-Aliassime
4. Ben Shelton
5. Alex de Minaur
6. Lorenzo Musetti
7. Daniel Medvedev
8. Alexander Bublik
9. Andrey Rublev
10. Flavio Cobolli
11. Jiří Lehečka
12. Casper Ruud
13. Karen Khachanov
14. Valentin Vacherot
15. Tommy Paul
16. Francisco Cerundolo
17. Teacher Tien
18. Luciano Darderi
19. Cameron Norrie
20. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
21. Arthur Son
22. Arthur Rinderknecht
23. Jakub Menšík
24. Tomás Martin Etcheverry
25. Corentin Moutet
26. João Fonseca
27. Brandon Nakashima
28. Tallon Greek track
29. Hugo Humbert
30. Denis Shapovalov
31. Gabriel Diallo
32. Alex Michelsen

Wildcard

Protect Ranking

Socket

Pangs

Lucky Losers

2026 Madrid Open Draw

Upper half

Lower half

PDF drawing

Thoughts on the draw

First quarter

Seeded Players: Jannik Sinner (1), Tommy Paul (15), Cameron Norrie (19), Gabriel Diallo (32), Andrey Rublev (9), Arthur Rinderknech (22), João Fonseca (27), Alex de Minaur (5)

This is a strong but manageable quarter for Sinner as I just don’t see who can challenge him.

The Italian opens with a qualifier. Diallo is the standout early threat, and his game translates well to the height he showed last year, but Sinner should do well in the first week.

The round of 16 is where it could potentially tighten up. Paul, Norrie and Machac are all capable of making things difficult, Machac especially given recent history, but none of them have an overwhelming mud pedigree.

The real intrigue is the bottom half of the quarter. De Minaur is the intended opponent, but he has landed in a minefield.

Jodar could test him right away, and Fonseca looms as one of the most dangerous fleets in the entire draw. Rublev is also here, but unpredictable, as he often plays well one week (as recently in Barcelona) and then poorly the next, so he can dominate or disappear.

Overall, this quarter feels pretty straightforward for Sinner if his shoulder niggle isn’t too much of an issue. Lots of dangerous names, but no obvious player performing at a level close to him right now.

Second quarter

Seeded Players: Ben Shelton (4), Tomas Etcheverry (25), Arthur Fils (21), Valentin Vacherot (14), Jiri Lehecka (11), Alex Michelsen (33), Tallon Griekspoor (29), Lorenzo Musetti (6)

This is arguably the most competitive quarter of the entire draw.

Shelton arrives full of confidence after Munich, but he’s got a brutal opener in Berrettini. It is immediately a coin toss. If he survives, the road is not easy; Etcheverry, Fils and Vacherot are all capable of deep drives.

Fils is the outstanding hazard. Fresh from a title and with a huge forehand, he looks like a contender if he can maintain consistency.

On the other hand, Musetti is the proven Madrid performer (semi-finalist last year), but his path is tricky, and he is undercooked in match play.

The Italian has Hurkacz early, then potentially Lehecka, a player who has already shown he can go deep at big events. Tabilo and Struff add additional danger.

Third quarter

Seeded Players: Alexander Bublik (8), Corentin Moutet (26), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (20), Casper Ruud (12), Francisco Cerundolo (16), Luciano Darderi (18), Brandon Nakashima (28), Felix Auger-Aliassime (3)

Bublik vs Tsitsipas in round two could be a fun match; Bublik should fancy his chances under the conditions.

Ruud is the defending champion and the best pure clay player here, but fitness concerns hang over him. If he’s not 100%, this episode opens up dramatically.

The Spanish contingent (Davidovich Fokina, Carreño Busta, Munar) adds further unpredictability, especially with the crowd behind them.

Then there is the Cerundolo–Darderi zone. Both are strong clay courts and could take advantage of Auger-Aliassime’s inconsistency. The FAA has a pedigree here, but not the form.

Lower quarter

Seeded Players: Daniil Medvedev (7), Denis Shapovalov (31), Learner Tien (17), Flavio Cobolli (10), Karen Khachanov (13), Jakub Mensik (23), Ugo Humbert (30), Alexander Zverev (2)

This is where the draw opens up structurally, without Alcaraz, and Zverev looks the biggest beneficiary.

Medvedev’s episode is dangerous. Early Shapovalov or Opelka in Madrid conditions are not comfortable, and the fourth round is loaded (Cobolli, Dimitrov, Monfils, Tien). This is not a smooth road, as he seems to have forgotten how to play since Indian Wells.

Zverev, on the other hand, has a very workable route. Borges/Navone is tricky but manageable, and even the expected challenges, Kecmanovic, Mensik, are ones he should handle if he plays well.

Is it a potential quarter-final between Zverev and Medvedev? Historically, Medvedev dominates the match, but form, surface and conditions should favor Zverev.

Interesting matches in the first round

Who do you pick for Madrid Open 2026? Let me know in the comments.