Two gaming industry analysts said in separate reports that the local Las Vegas market will continue to be strong and financially outperform Strip properties.
John DeCree, director of equity research for Las Vegas-based CBRE Group Inc., and Kim Noland, of Gimme Credit LLC in Westchester County, New York, both concluded in reports published Tuesday that the local market will remain strong thanks to companies reinvesting in their properties and because of tax cuts offered in President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.
“Although comparisons become more difficult for the local market in 2026, there are still several catalysts on the horizon that should drive moderate growth, including tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and recent capital reinvestments by major operators such as Boyd Gaming Corp. and Red Rock Resorts,” DeCree wrote in his stock research report.
“Across our coverage universe, the Las Vegas Locals market should benefit the most from the OBBB Act given the concentration of tipped employees and the number of retirees living in Las Vegas, along with the city’s propensity to gamble.”
Red Rock expansion
Noland pointed to Red Rock’s massive expansion program at its Durango property as an economic driver.
“The company owns seven major sites and 12 smaller properties, and its recent earnings growth has been driven by its popular new Durango Casino as well as upgrades at Green Valley Ranch and Sunset Station expected to be completed this year,” Noland wrote. “Red Rock’s largest and most significant peer, Boyd Gaming, owns casinos across the country, and while its profit margins may be slightly superior to Red Rock’s, its overall performance in the local market has lagged recently due to Durango’s success. Red Rock is outselling its competitors in part because Durango has grown the market since it opened and also because Red Rock is taking part in its major expansion.”
When comparing the Strip to the local market, DeCree said locals have tended to have better rebounds during economic downturns.
“Since 1984, annual gross gaming revenue on the Strip has declined 11 times compared to six times for the local market,” DeCree wrote.
“Of those six years, three were related to the global financial crisis (2008-2010), which was down 21 percent peak to trough versus 19 percent on the Strip. One was due to the covid-19 pandemic (2020), down 23 percent versus 43 percent on the Strip. The other two years (4013) saw less gaming revenue than 2013 0.3 percent compared to a 2 percent drop on the Strip Under other recessionary periods such as the dot-com bubble saw local gross gaming revenue increase by 8 percent despite a 3 percent decline on the Strip. Additionally, the local market has decoupled significantly from the Strip with a more favorable supply-to-demand balance of 40 percent in 2007.”
Noland believes Trump’s economic plan will work out positively for local residents’ customers.
“Administrative tax policies for tips, overtime and a retiree tax credit will continue to help the company’s core customers in the local market,” he wrote.
Golden downgraded
Another company with a strong local presence, Las Vegas-based Golden Entertainment Inc., was downgraded by DeCree as the company transitions to private ownership.
“We are lowering our gilt price target to $28 (a share, from $32) based on the current exchange ratio for the equity portion of the transaction with Vici Properties Inc,” DeCree wrote. “While The Strat will likely remain challenged amid softer visitor and leisure demand on the Strip, we expect Golden’s local population (Arizona Charlies) to benefit in the same way as Boyd and Red Rock Resorts. Although GDEN will be delisted following its transaction, we believe the company’s balance sheet will position it for growth. We would not be surprised if Goldened became a public growth strategy rather than a private company. valuation, Golden could be more nimble or more aggressively in pursuing mergers and acquisitions and-or major developments as a private company.”
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