There is a theory – maybe call it a conspiracy theory? — that the reason Nevada’s gambling profits are increasing despite visitation being down is that the state’s slot machines are taking more money than they are legally allowed.
But Nevada regulators say not only is it virtually impossible, but casinos would be foolish to even try.
By regulation, Nevada slot machines can hold a maximum of 25 percent of the money put into them, meaning players can expect a 75 percent return. In practice, the percentage is closer to 93.5 percent to 6.5 percent.
But a recent study by the UNLV Center for Gaming Research says that over time, slot machines have become increasingly tight on the player.
“Hold percentage — the percentage of money played that the casino keeps — has a huge impact on casino revenue,” the UNLV report says. “Even if the handle (total play) increases over a period, a decrease in the hold percentage can mean a decrease in casino revenue. Players naturally prefer a low hold percentage, which on average gives them more money back, while casinos look to balance higher holds with the need to keep players happy.”
Average retention: 6.55%
The December report says the statewide average slot ownership in Nevada since 2004 is 6.55 percent. But the report also noted that over the past 10 years, holdings have increased by 26 percent, meaning players have won less than before.
In 2025, for example, the statewide holding rate was 7.15 percent, meaning that the state’s machines paid back 92.85 percent of what went into them to players.
These averages include two months in 2020, in April and May, when there was no casino revenue because all casinos nationwide were closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The UNLV report also revealed which markets have been the most lucrative for players to go.
According to the report, since 2004, the submarket with the highest percentage of holdings has been the Las Vegas Strip, where casinos have kept 7.57 percent of the money wagered, known as the drop.
The second worst location, from a player’s perspective, was Laughlin at 7.42 percent, followed by downtown Las Vegas, 7.17 percent, and South Shore Lake Tahoe, 6.89 percent.
The UNLV report says Strip holdings were 45 percent greater than the lowest reporting area, Reno, which held 5.21 percent.
Holding percentage statistics are monitored by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, which regularly audits casinos and requires them to keep extensive logs of what slot machines hold in order to collect a percentage of it as a gambling tax.
Nevada’s 6.75 percent tax on gambling winnings goes into the state’s general fund, which pays for a variety of services.
Gaming Control Board department heads say their agents conduct audits and check logs of unannounced visits. Due to the large number of casinos in the state, agents generally visit each location once every two or three years.
Rusty LeBlanc, the head of the Control Board’s audit division, and Jeremy Eberwein, head of the Technology Division, which also oversees the Control Board’s gaming lab, said in a recent interview that it would be virtually impossible for casinos to set their slot machines to hold more than 25 percent of the allowed fall.
According to the Control Board’s Regulation 14, “All gaming devices must theoretically pay out a mathematically demonstrable percentage of all amounts wagered, which must not be less than 75 percent for each bet available for play on the device and determine the outcome of the game solely by the application of chance, player skill, or a combination of player skill and chance.”
75% hold is max
But LeBlanc and Eberwein said casinos can’t set their machines to take more than 75 percent of the cut and even if they could, it’s doubtful they would risk their licenses to make more money by trying.
“They have set configurations,” Eberwein said. “For example, one of them might have a configuration for 90 percent return to player or 10 percent possession, depending on which way you want to look at it. It’s just fixed. That’s your only option. You can’t say, you know, tweak it a little bit this way or that way. There’s only very specific options for that. And that’s everything in the program that can physically pick 4 percent, so you have something physical to pick. hold. It’s just not there.”
Can a casino sweeten the deal for players by tuning machines to give more back to the player?
“It’s pretty common for there to be games out there that have a ‘fixed option,’ we say, like a 96 percent return to the player,” Eberwein said. “And then the narrower option is, you know, just in a typical game is probably going to be 86 (percent). So that’s really the whole range you have.”
IGT representatives declined to comment on how easy or difficult it is to make changes to a slot machine’s hold, but Eberwein said it would take about 15 minutes per machine to change.
About 25 years ago, slot machine manufacturers developed server-based gaming that allowed slot floor managers to program multiple machines simultaneously with a few keystrokes on the computer. Eberwein and LeBlanc said the concept didn’t catch on as much as the manufacturers had hoped.
Eberwein said he’s not sure why it didn’t, but he has theories.
Bandwidth requirements
“One is that it takes a lot of bandwidth to do that,” he said.
That’s because these types of systems can also change game themes and graphics.
“When you have a thousand machines on your floor and you’re trying to download a bunch of stuff, it can really degrade your network,” he said.
Then different manufacturers have different types of systems so a casino company may need to invest in several different systems if the floor has games from several manufacturers.
Another aspect of casino hold is that it generally takes millions of slot machine spins before they reach the theoretical hold level.
But most of the new slot machines have a shelf life of six months to a year before casino companies consider replacing them.
The UNLV report says that while possession percentages have increased over the past two decades, chance is still a factor on a month-to-month basis.
“Although slot holdings have, on average, increased since 2004, there has been a great deal of fluctuation in the monthly hold, and from month to month there is little predictability as to exactly which way slot holdings are trending,” the report says.
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