Trust the process.
That’s what four lifelong friends from Indiana did in the Circa Sports Million contest, where contestants make five picks each week against the spread during the 18-week NFL season.
The process resulted in a 25-64-1 ATS record (28.1 percent), the worst in major league history. But it paid off in the form of a $100,000 final booby prize in the $1,000 contest, which drew a record 5,685 entries. The winner went 60-29-1.
“We look at it like we set a scoring record, not just for the losers, but for the entire competition. If we reversed it, it would have been the best record in the history of the competition,” said Rob Lappin, one of the biggest losers. “If we had just flipped each of our entries, we would have won $1 million. So I think next year we can buy two entries and make one record that we like and the other record will be the exact opposite of what we like.”
In keeping with tradition at Friday night’s check presentation ceremony at Circa, Lappin was first presented with a standard-sized personal check on stage before being presented with an oversized $100,000 check made out to “GCIndycate,” their racing alias.
Lappin and his fellow 41-year-old racing partners and Indiana residents Ryan Clinton, Adam Foust and Scott Bucher began trying to pick winners with their lone race entry before trying to pick losers after a 7-18 start.
“We’re like, ‘This sucks.’ We don’t know the NFL. What the hell have we done?’ We seriously questioned ourselves, Lappin said. “I guess whatever I think I should just start picking against it because then it can win.
“At that point, to win this, we’ve got to hit about 80 percent of the rest of the picks. Or we can look at tanking and go after this booby prize. We just said, ‘trust the process.'”
“Throws a dart at the wheel”
The process involved rotating one person who made two picks each week, while the other three made one each.
“Our No. 1 rule is ‘Don’t go 0-2,'” Lappin said.
It soon became 2-0 not to go. Lappin, an analytical chemist who has been friends with Clinton (a day trader) since preschool and the others (Bucher is a banker, Foust is an entrepreneur) since grade school, said they each have different approaches to handicapping.
“I’m more analytical-based. I’m a numbers guy. I’m hungry for data,” he said. “Ryan’s more of a feel guy. He trusts his eyes and what’s going on. Foust is kind of like a schedule guy. I’ll play the Titans because of recent bias.
“I don’t know what Scott does, honestly. I think he has a wheel with all four AFC South teams on it and he spins it every week and throws a dart at the wheel and says, ‘Yeah, I guess I’ll go Falcons again.’ “
“GCIndycate” — “GC” stands for God’s Country, which is what they call Plymouth, Indiana, where they all grew up — led the last-place leaderboard by 1½ points (one point for a win, half a point for a push) heading into Week 18.
They finished with a winless week, going 0-5 to win the booby award with losers of the 49ers (+1½, lost 13-3 to Seahawks), Cardinals (+7, lost 37-20 to Rams), Dolphins (+10½, lost 38-10 to Patriots), Packers (+8½-3, lost to Vikings (+6)-3, lost to Vikings (+8½s, Vikings) 26-24 to the Steelers).
When Lappin tells people he won $100,000 in an NFL handicapping contest in Las Vegas for last place, they get confused.
“Their face just twists up and it breaks their brain,” he said. “They say, “Wait, you came last? But you just said you won money.” ”
Mental Handicappers (27-61-2) and Son of David (28-62) tied for second last and shared the $50,000 prize.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@ theplayerlounge.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
